Sunday, April 25, 2004
NFL Compensatory Picks.
Even though the NFL keeps the formula for compensatory picks ultra-secret, some have tried to get it right through trial-and-error. (Link courtesy of KFFL.)
In case the thread gets deleted, here's the jist of it:
For the third straight year and fourth overall, I've attempted to do something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) - to project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I got 26 of the 32 comp picks exactly right - going to the correct team in the correct round - and was off by only one round on four others. That was an improvement over 2002, when I got 22 correct and was off by one round on two others. I've done a great amount of research this year in hopes of getting more than 26 correct, but it's such a difficult task that I'd settle for 24 or more (75 percent or better).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games started as a general estimate) and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player. One thing my research this year has led me to believe is that the placement of comp picks can be adjusted when a team's cancellations aren't equal. In the above example, the comp pick for the $4 million player would be slightly downgraded. If the $2 million player signed had cancelled out a $2.5 million player lost, then the comp pick for the $4 million player would be slightly higher than it otherwise would be.
It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been six of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was more than twice the combined value of free agents signed. In all six cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. However, I no longer believe that having an equal number of qualifying free agents lost and signed is necessary for this type of comp pick - a team could get one even if it signed more qualifying players than it lost, as long as the net value of the players lost was at least twice as much (or so) as the net value of the players signed. That affects one team this year, Pittsburgh, which signed two qualifying players (Todd Fordham and Clint Kriewaldt) and lost only one (Wayne Gandy), but Gandy's value ($4.17 million per season, 16 games started) was more than twice the combined values of Fordham and Kriewaldt (a combined $1.586 million per season, with 26 games played and six games started).
I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (highly secret) compensatory picks formula, which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp equation was Patrick Johnson, who signed for $625,000 per season and played in nine games, starting six. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Rabih Abdullah, who signed for $642,000 per season and played in 16 games, starting none. To determine the approximate cutoff points for this year's comps, I raised last year's cutoffs by the percentage increase in the salary cap from 2002 to 2003, which was 5.49 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2003 was equal to Patrick Johnson’s in 2002, and who signed for about $659,300 per season, should qualify for the equation. But a player whose playing time in 2003 was equal to Rabih Adbullah's in 2002, and who signed for $677,200 per season, should not qualify. Determining whether players who signed for $650,000 to $700,000 per season qualify is one of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were five players on the bubble this year - Patrick Johnson (again), Olandis Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris Hetherington. I've projected that Johnson ($680,000, 16 games played/2 games started), Gary ($692,500, 13/0) and Spikes ($675,000, 16/16) will qualify, but Davis ($685,600, 15/0) and Hetherington ($655,000, 14/1) will not. As a full-time starter who signed for more than $659,300 per season, Spikes should be a lock to qualify. Johnson and Gary had quite a bit of playing time on offense (Johnson had more catches than he had last year). But Davis and Hetherington primarily were special-teams players, like Abdullah was in 2002.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. No third-round picks have been awarded since 2002, when both players for whom those comps were awarded signed for more than $5.8 million per season. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, fourth-round comp players got $3.5 million to $5.03 million, fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.4 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.43 million to $2.41 million and seventh-round players got $1.46 million or less. When determining the ranges for this year's comps, I again used a 5.49-percent increase over last year's levels and adjusted for playing time, postseason honors and inequalities in cancellations of other players. The ranges for my projections ended up as $3.75 million to $5.4 million for the fourth round, $1.75 million to $2.5 million for the sixth round and $1.5 million or less for the seventh round. I'm projecting that, once again, no third-round picks will be awarded. And no comp picks fell within the fifth-round range in my projection.
As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first six picks in the eighth round, if there were one.
By my calculations, there will be 31 true compensatory picks (three of them based on net value differential) and one non-compensatory pick awarded this year. Here are the projected picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and average contract value -
THIRD ROUND
None
FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Hugh Douglas, 16 GP/16 GS, $5.4 million)
Cincinnati (Takeo Spikes, 16/16, $5.33 million)
St. Louis (Dre Bly, 14/14, $4.9 million)
Philadelphia (Shawn Barber, 16/16, $4.29 million)
New York Jets (Randy Thomas, 16/16, $3.95 million)
Tennessee (John Thornton, 16/16, $3.75 million)
FIFTH ROUND
None
SIXTH ROUND
Baltimore (Jeff Blake, 13/13, $2.5 million)
San Francisco (Chike Okeafor, 16/16, $2.0 million)
St. Louis (Ernie Conwell 10/10 Injured Reserve, $1.75 million)
SEVENTH ROUND
New York Jets (John Hall, 16, $1.43 million)
New Orleans (Ken Irvin, 16/8, $1.5 million)
New York Jets (Richie Anderson, 15/8, $1.03 million)
St. Louis (Ricky Proehl, 16/2, $1.01 million)
New York Jets (James Darling, 16/0, $1.04 million)
Philadelphia (Doug Brzezinski, 1/0, $1.33 million)
Tennessee (Donald Mitchell, IR, $930,000)
Houston (Keith Mitchell, 3/2, $1.0 million)
Tennessee (Kevin Dyson, 1/0, $1.0 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Zgonina, 16/3, $887,500)
Baltimore (Sam Gash, 16/10, $780,000)
Oakland (Jon Ritchie, 16/9, $773,000)
Philadelphia (Brian Mitchell, 16/0, 887,500)
Baltimore James Trapp (5/0 IR, $786,000)
Jacksonville (Todd Fordham, 11/6, $793,000)
New England (Terrell Buckley, 16/5, $780,000)
Jacksonville (Stacey Mack, 8/5 IR, $735,600)
Denver (Izell Reese, 13/9 IR, $727,000)
Denver (Olandis Gary, 13/0, $692,500)
Chicago (net value; lost 2/2 IR, $4.32 million; signed 15/15, $1.51 million)
Green Bay (net value; lost 47/31, $9.943 million; signed 56/18, $3.792 million)
Pittsburgh (net value; lost 16/16, $4.17 million; signed 26/6, $1.586 million)
New York Giants (non-compensatory)
Last year, four of the comp picks I projected were off by one round. The highest fifth-rounder in my projection ended up being the lowest fourth-rounder, and the three highest seventh-rounders in my projection ended up being the three lowest sixth-rounders. This year, it's possible that the comps for Douglas, Takeo Spikes and maybe Bly could be third-rounders, that the comps for Thornton and maybe Thomas (and, very remotely, Blake) could be fifth-rounders, and that the comps for Hall and Irvin could be sixth-rounders.
I also made one cancellation mistake last year, canceling a $3.19 million player signed with a $2.24 million player lost for St. Louis, instead of canceling a $1.2 million player lost. As a result, I was off by two rounds on the Rams' comp pick (I said a seventh, they got a fifth). The most questionable cancellation this year involves Cincinnati, which signed four players and lost five. Their two highest-paid losses were Takeo Spikes ($5.33 million) and Cory Hall ($2.45 million). Their two highest-paid signings were Thornton ($3.75 million) and Kevin Hardy ($3.6 million). I had Thornton canceling Hall and Hardy canceling Lorenzo Neal ($1.4 million), and I downgraded the comp pick for Spikes because of the unequal cancellations. If the NFL instead determined that Thornton and Hardy canceled out Hall and Spikes, the Bengals should get a seventh-round comp pick for Nicholas Luchey (11/2, $1.0 million).
If I am wrong about any of the five bubble players - Patrick Johnson, Olandis Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris Hetherington - it will affect the comp picks awarded. Also, Keith Mitchell could be excluded from the equation because he was waived on Nov. 27. However, that was after Week 12, and no player released after Week 10 has ever been eliminated from the equation when he otherwise would qualify. I'm pretty confident that Mitchell will qualify, but it's possible that he won't.
If Patrick Johnson does not qualify, Jacksonville will not get a seventh-round comp for Stacey Mack, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick after the Giants' non-compensatory pick.
If Olandis Gary does not qualify, Denver will not get a seventh for him, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Cameron Spikes does not qualify and Keith Mitchell does, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Keith Mitchell does not qualify, and regardless of whether Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, and Jacksonville will get a seventh for Wali Rainier (16/0, $915,000), probably between the comps for Jon Ritchie and Brian Mitchell.
If both Patrick Johnson and Keith Mitchell do not qualify, and regardless of whether Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, Jacksonville will get a seventh for Rainier instead of Mack, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Don Davis does qualify, New England will not get a seventh for Terrell Buckley, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Chris Hetherington does qualify, Oakland will not get a seventh for Jon Ritchie, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
In any combination of the above scenarios that would add more than one non-compensatory pick, the teams that would get one after San Diego's are, in order, Oakland, Arizona, Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Houston and Washington. Also, if any of the projected "net value" comps are not awarded, that will increase the number of non-compensatory picks added.
This year's compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around April 1. After they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I've already presented some other possibilities).
5:36:00 PM
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