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Cyclic Synchronicity
 
Thursday, April 29, 2004
 
Transformers.

TechTV has a preview of the upcoming Transformers Armada PS2 game.

12:11:00 PM


 
The Sports Guy.

The Sports Guy has a new column up today on the the NFL draft.

11:56:00 AM


 
"Exacerbating" Existentialists.

Watch out for that Friedrich Nietzsche action figure. (Link courtesy Eve Tushnet.)

11:03:00 AM

Wednesday, April 28, 2004
 
Arts.

A couple of art-related links today: the first from the Philadelphia Inquirer about the launching of a program designed to produce minimalistic art; and the second from Financial Times about what it takes to become a popular, supported artist. (Links courtesy ArtsJournal.)

5:02:00 PM

Tuesday, April 27, 2004
 
TMQ.

Gregg Easterbrook chimes in with his latest Tuesday Morning Quarterback column.

10:36:00 AM

Monday, April 26, 2004
 
Peter Bagge.

Over at Reason, Peter Bagge releases his newest comic, Playing to the Totalitarian Left. (Link courtesy Hit & Run.)

7:50:00 PM


 
Essays.

Brian Tackle offers essays on the Matrix Reloaded and the Matrix Revolutions.

7:22:00 PM


 
Spam.

Tell Congress
lucky emperor,
Ejaculating L. Splotches
was Challenged at Regis Philbin's Studio.
Thompson & Co. Inc
should last forever If pizza be Passion.
the food of love…for high skilled professionals
No prescription needed
no exercising ever
YOUR TRUST IS VITAL.

11:37:00 AM

Sunday, April 25, 2004
 
April 24: 24-Hour Comics/NFL Draft Day.

Here's my diary of April 24, 2004, as I concentrated on two things: my 24-hour comic and the 2004 NFL draft:

1:21 a.m. While watching Iron Chef Hiroyuki Sakai take on American Bobby Flay in "Iron Chef America," I started laying out the first few pages. Just sketched out the panels, nothing big.

1:35 a.m. I finished panel layouts for pages 1 and 2 and sketched out page 1. My eyes are too tired to continue, especially with the Flay-Sakai battle heating up. Elapsed time on comic: 14 minutes.

1:46 a.m. Has Alton Brown grown out his hair since "Good Eats?" Has he gotten some Botox injections? These are the things I wonder.

1:59 a.m. Bobby Flay wins! Then Flay calls Sakai the "Babe Ruth of Iron Chefs." It can't get any worse.

8:01 a.m. I can barely see the numbers on the clock, but somehow I'm awake enough to start up on my comic again.

8:30 a.m. I'm on page 2 and I'm feeling the pressure. How am I supposed to get 24 pages worth of comic?

9:10 a.m. I've got the first page done. Woot! Even so, it took me nearly an hour and a half, and the first page is pretty barren, being the lead-in. Part of page 2 is completed also. Elapsed time: 1:23.

9:49 a.m. At just over two hours passed, I'm done completely with two pages. Elapsed time: 2:02. It's at this point that I figure I'll complete my comic in 24 non-continuous hours. Break time.

11 a.m. The 69th annual NFL draft begins. Now I only have to wait another four hours before the Green Bay Packers pick at 25th overall.

11:04 a.m. First Pat Tillman reference. Over/under is 13 for the first hour.

11:30 a.m. Completed first four pages nearly. Elapsed time: 2:32.

12:30 p.m. Michael Irvin knocks Texas wide receiver Roy Williams for staying in school. I knew this would be fun.

2:28 p.m. Started working on my comic again after watching way too much NFL draft and eating lunch.

2:46 p.m. Added some darker tones to the first four pages. Elapsed time: 2:50.

3:14 p.m. Watching Michael Irvin and Ron Jaworski battle over the merits of starting QB Carson Palmer in his second year is hysterical. This is the highlight of the draft so far, Eli Manning be dammed.

3:28 p.m. Packers select Ahmad Carroll, a cornerback from Arkansas. The past half-hour made me nervous wondering what the Pack was going to do.

4:37 p.m. Round Two begins. I also realize I will probably not complete more than my current four pages of comic. Oh, well. One-sixth isn't too bad.

6:39 p.m. Packers are on the clock.

6:41 p.m. Maybe they'll just trade down.

7:25 p.m. Round Three begins. I'm still waiting for Green Bay's second pick.

7:44 p.m. Packers select cornerback Joey Thomas from Montana State. At least McKenzie's days are numbered.

8:50 p.m. The Packers moved back into the third just to select a punter? I'm officially worried about this next season.

I only completed 4 of 24 pages. Even though I wasn't successful in this endeavor, it did get me motivated to complete some other comic ideas I've had in my mind for a while. And even though I did technically quit, I'm happy with the part I did finish and happy that I was able to generate my interest in doing something similar again.

10:14:00 PM


 
NFL Compensatory Picks.

Even though the NFL keeps the formula for compensatory picks ultra-secret, some have tried to get it right through trial-and-error. (Link courtesy of KFFL.)

In case the thread gets deleted, here's the jist of it:

For the third straight year and fourth overall, I've attempted to do something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) - to project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I got 26 of the 32 comp picks exactly right - going to the correct team in the correct round - and was off by only one round on four others. That was an improvement over 2002, when I got 22 correct and was off by one round on two others. I've done a great amount of research this year in hopes of getting more than 26 correct, but it's such a difficult task that I'd settle for 24 or more (75 percent or better).

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games started as a general estimate) and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player. One thing my research this year has led me to believe is that the placement of comp picks can be adjusted when a team's cancellations aren't equal. In the above example, the comp pick for the $4 million player would be slightly downgraded. If the $2 million player signed had cancelled out a $2.5 million player lost, then the comp pick for the $4 million player would be slightly higher than it otherwise would be.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been six of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was more than twice the combined value of free agents signed. In all six cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. However, I no longer believe that having an equal number of qualifying free agents lost and signed is necessary for this type of comp pick - a team could get one even if it signed more qualifying players than it lost, as long as the net value of the players lost was at least twice as much (or so) as the net value of the players signed. That affects one team this year, Pittsburgh, which signed two qualifying players (Todd Fordham and Clint Kriewaldt) and lost only one (Wayne Gandy), but Gandy's value ($4.17 million per season, 16 games started) was more than twice the combined values of Fordham and Kriewaldt (a combined $1.586 million per season, with 26 games played and six games started).

I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (highly secret) compensatory picks formula, which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time.

Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp equation was Patrick Johnson, who signed for $625,000 per season and played in nine games, starting six. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Rabih Abdullah, who signed for $642,000 per season and played in 16 games, starting none. To determine the approximate cutoff points for this year's comps, I raised last year's cutoffs by the percentage increase in the salary cap from 2002 to 2003, which was 5.49 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2003 was equal to Patrick Johnson’s in 2002, and who signed for about $659,300 per season, should qualify for the equation. But a player whose playing time in 2003 was equal to Rabih Adbullah's in 2002, and who signed for $677,200 per season, should not qualify. Determining whether players who signed for $650,000 to $700,000 per season qualify is one of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were five players on the bubble this year - Patrick Johnson (again), Olandis Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris Hetherington. I've projected that Johnson ($680,000, 16 games played/2 games started), Gary ($692,500, 13/0) and Spikes ($675,000, 16/16) will qualify, but Davis ($685,600, 15/0) and Hetherington ($655,000, 14/1) will not. As a full-time starter who signed for more than $659,300 per season, Spikes should be a lock to qualify. Johnson and Gary had quite a bit of playing time on offense (Johnson had more catches than he had last year). But Davis and Hetherington primarily were special-teams players, like Abdullah was in 2002.

Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. No third-round picks have been awarded since 2002, when both players for whom those comps were awarded signed for more than $5.8 million per season. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, fourth-round comp players got $3.5 million to $5.03 million, fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.4 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.43 million to $2.41 million and seventh-round players got $1.46 million or less. When determining the ranges for this year's comps, I again used a 5.49-percent increase over last year's levels and adjusted for playing time, postseason honors and inequalities in cancellations of other players. The ranges for my projections ended up as $3.75 million to $5.4 million for the fourth round, $1.75 million to $2.5 million for the sixth round and $1.5 million or less for the seventh round. I'm projecting that, once again, no third-round picks will be awarded. And no comp picks fell within the fifth-round range in my projection.

As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first six picks in the eighth round, if there were one.

By my calculations, there will be 31 true compensatory picks (three of them based on net value differential) and one non-compensatory pick awarded this year. Here are the projected picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and average contract value -

THIRD ROUND
None

FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Hugh Douglas, 16 GP/16 GS, $5.4 million)
Cincinnati (Takeo Spikes, 16/16, $5.33 million)
St. Louis (Dre Bly, 14/14, $4.9 million)
Philadelphia (Shawn Barber, 16/16, $4.29 million)
New York Jets (Randy Thomas, 16/16, $3.95 million)
Tennessee (John Thornton, 16/16, $3.75 million)

FIFTH ROUND
None

SIXTH ROUND
Baltimore (Jeff Blake, 13/13, $2.5 million)
San Francisco (Chike Okeafor, 16/16, $2.0 million)
St. Louis (Ernie Conwell 10/10 Injured Reserve, $1.75 million)

SEVENTH ROUND
New York Jets (John Hall, 16, $1.43 million)
New Orleans (Ken Irvin, 16/8, $1.5 million)
New York Jets (Richie Anderson, 15/8, $1.03 million)
St. Louis (Ricky Proehl, 16/2, $1.01 million)
New York Jets (James Darling, 16/0, $1.04 million)
Philadelphia (Doug Brzezinski, 1/0, $1.33 million)
Tennessee (Donald Mitchell, IR, $930,000)
Houston (Keith Mitchell, 3/2, $1.0 million)
Tennessee (Kevin Dyson, 1/0, $1.0 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Zgonina, 16/3, $887,500)
Baltimore (Sam Gash, 16/10, $780,000)
Oakland (Jon Ritchie, 16/9, $773,000)
Philadelphia (Brian Mitchell, 16/0, 887,500)
Baltimore James Trapp (5/0 IR, $786,000)
Jacksonville (Todd Fordham, 11/6, $793,000)
New England (Terrell Buckley, 16/5, $780,000)
Jacksonville (Stacey Mack, 8/5 IR, $735,600)
Denver (Izell Reese, 13/9 IR, $727,000)
Denver (Olandis Gary, 13/0, $692,500)
Chicago (net value; lost 2/2 IR, $4.32 million; signed 15/15, $1.51 million)
Green Bay (net value; lost 47/31, $9.943 million; signed 56/18, $3.792 million)
Pittsburgh (net value; lost 16/16, $4.17 million; signed 26/6, $1.586 million)
New York Giants (non-compensatory)

Last year, four of the comp picks I projected were off by one round. The highest fifth-rounder in my projection ended up being the lowest fourth-rounder, and the three highest seventh-rounders in my projection ended up being the three lowest sixth-rounders. This year, it's possible that the comps for Douglas, Takeo Spikes and maybe Bly could be third-rounders, that the comps for Thornton and maybe Thomas (and, very remotely, Blake) could be fifth-rounders, and that the comps for Hall and Irvin could be sixth-rounders.

I also made one cancellation mistake last year, canceling a $3.19 million player signed with a $2.24 million player lost for St. Louis, instead of canceling a $1.2 million player lost. As a result, I was off by two rounds on the Rams' comp pick (I said a seventh, they got a fifth). The most questionable cancellation this year involves Cincinnati, which signed four players and lost five. Their two highest-paid losses were Takeo Spikes ($5.33 million) and Cory Hall ($2.45 million). Their two highest-paid signings were Thornton ($3.75 million) and Kevin Hardy ($3.6 million). I had Thornton canceling Hall and Hardy canceling Lorenzo Neal ($1.4 million), and I downgraded the comp pick for Spikes because of the unequal cancellations. If the NFL instead determined that Thornton and Hardy canceled out Hall and Spikes, the Bengals should get a seventh-round comp pick for Nicholas Luchey (11/2, $1.0 million).

If I am wrong about any of the five bubble players - Patrick Johnson, Olandis Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris Hetherington - it will affect the comp picks awarded. Also, Keith Mitchell could be excluded from the equation because he was waived on Nov. 27. However, that was after Week 12, and no player released after Week 10 has ever been eliminated from the equation when he otherwise would qualify. I'm pretty confident that Mitchell will qualify, but it's possible that he won't.

If Patrick Johnson does not qualify, Jacksonville will not get a seventh-round comp for Stacey Mack, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick after the Giants' non-compensatory pick.

If Olandis Gary does not qualify, Denver will not get a seventh for him, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.

If Cameron Spikes does not qualify and Keith Mitchell does, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.

If Keith Mitchell does not qualify, and regardless of whether Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, and Jacksonville will get a seventh for Wali Rainier (16/0, $915,000), probably between the comps for Jon Ritchie and Brian Mitchell.

If both Patrick Johnson and Keith Mitchell do not qualify, and regardless of whether Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify, Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, Jacksonville will get a seventh for Rainier instead of Mack, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.

If Don Davis does qualify, New England will not get a seventh for Terrell Buckley, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.

If Chris Hetherington does qualify, Oakland will not get a seventh for Jon Ritchie, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.

In any combination of the above scenarios that would add more than one non-compensatory pick, the teams that would get one after San Diego's are, in order, Oakland, Arizona, Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Houston and Washington. Also, if any of the projected "net value" comps are not awarded, that will increase the number of non-compensatory picks added.

This year's compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around April 1. After they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I've already presented some other possibilities).

5:36:00 PM

Friday, April 23, 2004
 
Watchmen movie.

Comic Book Resources announces that "Pi" and "Requiem for a Dream" director Darren Aronofosky will direct the upcoming Watchmen movie. (Link courtesy Ferret Press.)

10:38:00 PM


 
NFL Draft Drinking Game.

Take a drink when ...

  1. Commissioner Tagliabue mispronounces someone's name. You may as well get a cold one ready when Kenechi Udeze gets picked.

  2. Chris Berman correctly predicts who the next pick will be. Take two drinks if he gets one wrong.

  3. Mel Kiper uses the word "tremendous" or "upside." Two drinks if he says "tremendous upside."

  4. Jets or Giants fans boo another team for taking a player they wanted. Two drinks if they boo their own team's selection.

  5. A draftee awkwardly hugs Commissioner Tagliabue at the podium. Chug a beer if he tries to perform a gangsta handshake.

  6. A draftee is shown wearing a suit with the same color as a Skittle.

  7. A draftee's mom cries after her baby is selected. 3 drinks if a member of a draftee's "posse" cries. Ten drinks if Dick Vermeil cries.

  8. One shot for every minute Minnesota is late in handing in their first round pick.

  9. After there is only one undrafted player left in the green room, take one drink for every uninvited player that gets drafted before he is finally picked. Three drinks if he starts to cry. Five drinks if he's picked by the Chiefs and Dick Vermeil cries for not trading up to pick him sooner (this is in addition to the 10 drinks for Dick Vermeil crying in general).

  10. One drink for every reference by anyone to any of the following people or things:
    • Tony Siragusa
    • Maurice Clarett's attorney
    • footage of Sean Salisbury playing QB (two drinks if there's footage of him throwing a pick or getting sacked)
    • Jessie Palmer (aka "The Bachelor")
    • Mel Kiper's barber
    • Mel Kiper's hair
    • Joe Theismann's injury at the hands of Lawrence Taylor
    • Dan Snyder's jet or helicopter
    • Al Davis' sweatsuit
    • Ryan Leaf
    • Brenda Warner

8:55:00 PM


 
24-Hour Comics Day.

When I get home from work tonight, I can officially begin my endeavor. And I probably will. I was originally hoping I would work 24 continuous hours, but I think that's a wee bit silly, considering I have to work Sunday. Therefore, I'll probably begin when I get home and work for an hour or two (hopefully two).

Then I'll get some rest and wake up in the morning ready to go at it again. I hope to work from about 8 a.m. Saturday to about 1 or 2 a.m. Sunday. If I worked until 2 a.m., that would be 18 continuous hours, plus the two hours before bed, bringing my total to 20 hours. If I got up at 8 a.m. Sunday, I would work until noon and that would be my deadline. And then I would work later that day.

This day has really snuck up on me. Unfortunately, it's slated the same weekend as the NFL draft and Iron Chef America battles, both of which I'd really like to see. So I didn't really have a chance to go out and load up on supplies, namely because it wasn't at the front of my mind. Oh, well. I'll make do with what I have.

Regardless, I have an idea for my comic, even though it's technically out of the spirit of it. And, yes, I do have some panels sketched out in my head, but nothing has been put to paper, so I believe I'm complying with the spirit of the day, even if I know where I want to go with the comic already.

Also, I'm going to get a log of my day. I'm going to keep track of how far I get each hour, with a few notes scribbled for each, too. I'll post that sometime Sunday or Monday.

7:38:00 PM


 
Comics Today.

I picked up the Image version of the Jack Staff TPB, done by Paul Grist, who also is the creator of Kane.

7:15:00 PM

Thursday, April 22, 2004
 
Recycled Art.

The San Franciso Gate has an article today about a San Francisco artist who re-used wigs which he found at a town dump. (Link courtesy Jim Romenesko.)

9:07:00 AM

Wednesday, April 21, 2004
 
To Pay?

From The Onion:

Libertarian Reluctantly Calls Fire Department
CHEYENNE, WY -- After attempting to contain a living-room blaze started by a cigarette, card-carrying Libertarian Trent Jacobs reluctantly called the Cheyenne Fire Department Monday. "Although the community would do better to rely on an efficient, free-market fire-fighting service, the fact is that expensive, unnecessary public fire departments do exist," Jacobs said. "Also, my house was burning down." Jacobs did not offer to pay firefighters for their service.

4:25:00 PM

Tuesday, April 20, 2004
 
TMQ.

Gregg Easterbrook has a new Tuesday Morning Quarterback column up today.

8:24:00 AM

Monday, April 19, 2004
 
The Best Comics of 2003.

Jared Smith, president of Mars Import, sent out a newsletter recently with his picks for the best comics of 2003. Here are a few of the highlights, including recommendations that interest me:

  • Battle Royale 1, about a "Lord of the Flies"-esque program that randomly selects students to live on an island in a televised fight-to-the-death.
  • Deicide, about a world where gods walk among peasants. But what happens when some stop worshipping, and start killing?
  • Louis Riel, about the Canadian leader.
  • Planetes 1, about an orbital garbage cleaning team in a future world of space colonization.

7:16:00 PM

Sunday, April 18, 2004
 
McCloud.

He offers his completed latest Whose Mind is it Anyway here.

4:39:00 PM


 
Why I Don't Read Superhero Comics.

Because Spider-Man will make you gay.

4:36:00 PM


 
Failed Superhero.

Read about Super Goat Man. (Link courtesy Weirdwriter.)

3:33:00 PM


 
My 24-Hour Comic.

I was foraging through my comics collection the past few days, taking a look at some of the smaller press titles because I was trying to find something that would be a platform for me to launch my drawing style Saturday for 24-Hour Comic Day.

Some of the ones that I found would be similar to my style:


3:15:00 PM

Saturday, April 17, 2004
 
Fun at Half-Price.

At Half-Price Books yesterday, I managed to scrounge through the comics section and grabbed some pretty good stuff. I paid about $6 for seven issues of La Cosa Nostroid, nearly completing my collection. I'm only missing issue #VI now.

I also bought Tick: Big Blue Destiny #4 for $1.50 (cover price is $3.50).

That store is great and the one nearest me has expanded the number of comic bins they showcase. Before, there had only been five, but now there are probably twice as many out there. Another difference is that they used to sell the comics individually, but the seven issues of La Cosa Nostroid were divided up into two packages of comics. It was a great way to nearly complete that title. I already had had a couple of the issues, but I still managed to buy five new issues of that series for just $6. Can't go wrong with that.

7:26:00 PM

Thursday, April 15, 2004
 
More drew.

If you liked drew, check out his unfinished novel.

11:45:00 AM


 
A new Meme.

1. Grab the nearest book.
2. Open the book to page 23.
3. Find the fifth sentence.
4. Post the text of the sentence in your journal along with these instructions.


"The matter for the moment is to set up the rightful heir," said Ts'ao Ts'ao.

That's right: "Romance of the Three Kingdoms: Vol. I," by Lo Kuan-chung, translated by C.H. Brewitt-Taylor.

11:35:00 AM


 
The Other White Meat.

Check out this site.

11:32:00 AM

Wednesday, April 14, 2004
 
Anti-War Art.

Check out these pieces:

A mosaic of soldiers who have died in Iraq making a larger picture of President Bush's face and a mosaic of porn actors making a larger picture of John Ashcroft's face.

The full link is at the Providence, R.I. Journal here. (Courtesy Prints the Chaff.)

2:50:00 PM


 
More than Meets the Eye.

Sony is releasing a "Transformers" game.

Take a gander at some of these game screenshots.

Read more about this game here.


1:25:00 PM

Tuesday, April 13, 2004
 
Roland.

For another historically influenced comic, read Roland: Days of Wrath, a comic about medieval France.

Read about the history behind the comic here.

1:06:00 PM


 
Age of Bronze.

I've been reading a lot about this comic lately, and apparently it has its own homepage. Included at the site is a comprehensive list of interviews with Age of Bronze creator Eric Shanower.

12:39:00 PM

Monday, April 12, 2004
 
Comics Info.

Dave Law has an excellent and extensive site for Creating Comics.

8:11:00 PM


 
NFL Draft.

The Providence, R.I. Journal provides an interesting look into New England Patriots Heac Coach Bill Belichick's mind:

Coach explains how Pats' picks stack up

Imagine this: It's midway through the NFL Draft's second round and you're on the clock. You need a guard. Only one has been drafted so far. But you also could use a cornerback. Four of those have gone. To confuse the equation further, a defensive tackle you really like is still on the board. You figured he'd be gone by now, but he looms there, complicating your conversation about the merits of the guard and the cornerback.

Tick. Tick. Tick.

This is the kind of eventuality the New England Patriots are preparing for right now. In a conversation that made us realize once again that we don't know what we don't know, head coach Bill Belichick detailed what his coaching staff, personnel and scouting departments are doing between now and draft day on April 24.

"Anywhere between 95 and 98 percent of the information

on players is in," Belichick said from his cell phone, while driving away from Gillette Stadium around 7 p.m. Tuesday. "Some of our scouts are still out on the road and we'll get the final information from them later in the week."

Then he began explaining what the team was doing in-house.

"What happens is, when you set the board you run into clumps where you have a group of guys in together, and then you break those clumps up and try to break that clump up relative to each other, not to position. You have the sixth guard and eighth receiver and the fourth safety, all are sitting right there together, and you don't have a definitive feeling on which one should be rated higher, so you have to figure out what the best fit is for you.

"The other part [currently being done] is figuring out what we do when a grade on a player doesn't jibe. When we stack the board we do it independently. So we sometimes have a guy with a 75 [rating] that is better than a guy with an 81, and you have to figure it out and talk about that."

Great. Not more than 90 seconds into explaining the process and already we had to ask for clarification on some of the terms he was using. But Belichick's a pretty patient guy when it comes to explanations. So we opted to ask the question and run the risk of looking like a moron instead of writing a poorly reported story that would remove all doubt.

"What does 'stack the board' mean exactly? What goes into that?"

"Stacking by position is, in relative terms, the easiest thing to do," he explained. "You simply stack guards 1 to 10 or whatever."

It's a simple matter of figuring out how players stack up at each position, Belichick explained. This is how it works. After each player has been thoroughly scouted, he is given an overall grade that generally runs from 1.0 (extreme longshot to make any team) to 9.0 (possible franchise player). Most first-rounders come in between 6.0 and 7.0.

Every single draftable player isn't stacked, Belichick pointed out. At some point the decision-makers conclude that they've reached the end of the players who could make their team. Sometimes that's after four players. Sometimes it's after a dozen.

"As you vertically stack, it's just, 'The first is better than the second, the second's better than the third,' " Belichick pointed out.

After the vertical stack, the next step is the horizontal stack. This is where the player grades really figure in.

"Once it's all up vertically at every position, then you look across horizontally. You have a 6.0 grade for linebacker X. Then you follow across on the board and find the guys with the other 6.0 grades.

"This part is hard to do," Belichick explained. "Here you start talking about a corner on the rise versus a center who's a good player but not a good athlete."

With so many players on the board, it's inevitable that there will be bunches of players with the same overall grade.

"At some point you have to break up that clump and say, 'OK, this is one, this is two, this is three.' Even if you have 15 guys in the 6.0 range and another 15 in the 6.1, you have to determine, 'This guy over that guy, that guy over the next guy,' and now you're in another vertical stack within your horizontal stack."

Belichick said the horizontal stack is usually the most difficult to complete. But when it's done, it becomes easier to take the final step in setting up the board. That's the final vertical stack in which the players are listed from the best player in the draft through the final draftable player.

"In the final stack, all those guys with 6.0, they should have a number next to their name that rates them higher or lower than the other guys at 6.0," Belichick said. "You rate the players 1-50, 51-100 and on down. So it's vertical, horizontal -- which is hard -- and then another vertical stack."

Belichick said this process shouldn't be hard, but added, "It inevitably is, because you get situations where you see a guy at 65 and you know you'd take him before the guy you have at 51. So who's in the wrong place? The guy at 51 or the guy at 65?"

This is where the scouting information that's been compiled since last fall becomes crucial. Belichick, vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli and the rest of the indispensable scouting department now go back and look at films and reports and make determinations on players.

The scouting process is long, intricate and multilayered. Consistency in evaluation is one of the top priorities.

"We want the same eyes to see the same players," Belichick said. "First we scout regionally, then we have our scouts who scout nationally come in and look at those players. [The national scouts] will see all the players on offense, defense, east of the Mississippi, west of the Mississippi. Then by the end of November we break it up and do it positionally. By the time the combine comes [in March], a regional scout, the national scout, a position scout, a position coach and, ultimately, Scott and I will look at them. We get six or seven looks at a guy. When we put the whole board together, that's where Scott and I and the national scouts come in and start stacking horizontally."

And whether he's a projected first-rounder or a player who's barely draftable, you can't just give him one look.

"There's no shortcut," Belichick said. "You have to see the players. The hard part is when you have bad information. Like when you're scouting a player, looking at him and the guy's playing on an ankle sprain and toughing it out for two weeks and you don't have that info. If you get a player on the wrong games, things like that that can skew information."

Even after all the scouting and stacking is done, the decision-makers still leave themselves wiggle room on the day of the draft.

Asked if the team remains locked into its "stack," Belichick said, "Once you get the draft board set, as the head coach and director of personnel, Scott and I still have the authority to make determinations based on the football team. You have this guy rated at 55, but we really need the guy at 63. Sometimes you do that within the draft. But I know if I take this 63, the 55 might still be there. You may have graded the player at 55 higher because of your system and you know you're higher on him than other teams. So we're going to take the player at 63 and hope for the 55 on the next pick. Or sometimes you look and say, 'This is the last tackle on the board for a long time. We have linebackers rated higher, but there are more of them.' So you need to take the tackle. That's just draft strategy."

Another draft strategy -- one which the Patriots often summon -- is dealing.

On the table in front of the principal decision-makers is a draft-order page, a "needs page" listing each team's weak spots, and a value page with information about each pick's relative value and trades made for those spots in the past few years.

"After every pick we make, we talk about what the needs of teams five, six, seven spots ahead of us are so we have idea of what they're looking at," Belichick said. "If you know a team needs a receiver, for instance, and they didn't get a receiver in the first round, they pretty much have to take a receiver in the second round. That second pick is more predictable."

Also indispensable to the Patriots: the trade phone. Sometimes it's Pioli or Belichick on that horn. Sometimes it's the team's "trade expert." But someone's always sitting near to it. And it often rings.

"Some teams don't make trades," Belichick pointed out. "Other teams -- like us -- will. And a lot of teams will call us because they know we will deal and pull the trigger. More opportunities come our way because of that.

"Usually, we get the guys we want to get where we want to get them. Sometimes we don't. Like with Ty Warren last year, we had to move up [one spot in the first round] to get him. With [Eugene] Wilson we could move down and take him in the second, then we had to move up again [to get him at 35]."

With their 4 picks in the first two rounds, 10 overall and 5 on the first day, the Patriots are the biggest players in this year's draft. The trade phone will be ringing off the hook, the debates on whether or not a player will be on the board when the next pick rolls around will rage and New England will make decisions that help ensure the length of its stay among the league's elite.

And on the days between now and April 24, decisions that lead to the final decisions are already being made.


For the full link, go here. (Full registration required.)

6:50:00 PM


 
24 Hour Comics Day.

I'm still prepping my mind, and I'm reading a lot of comics lately, especially online. You can read a lot of them at Scott McCloud's The 24-Hour Comics Index.

12:23:00 PM

Sunday, April 11, 2004
 
Comic Strip.

Make your own comic strip at the strip creator, which uses characters from online comic strips.

8:22:00 PM


 
Star Wars.

I was watching the Star Wars: Clone Wars micro series on Cartoon Network this past weekend.

I didn't recognize a bunch of the characters, but then again, I haven't seen Episode II in quite some time, and maybe they were in there. Maybe not. Regardless, Episode III seems to be arriving sometime in May 2005. Until then, there's this.

6:14:00 PM

Friday, April 09, 2004
 
Street Angel.

Catch a six-page glimpse of issue #2 here. (Link via Grotesque Anatomy.)

10:32:00 PM


 
More Bone.

The Pulse has an interview with Bone creator Jeff Smith, as the series nears conclusion. (Link courtesy Ferret Press.)

9:24:00 PM


 
Bill Simmons.

The Sports Guy heads to Vegas. Read here.

6:37:00 PM


 
Shipping in June.

It's Cerebus: Vol. 16: The Last Day.

From Previews Review:

The 240-page conclusion to comics' first 6,000-page graphic novel. Follow Cerebus' last day on Earth as he deals with debilitating aches and pains, memory loss, political turmoil, indigestion, incontinence, and when, exactly, is his son going to come to pay a visit? Includes complete annotations by Dave Sim. Available in a Signed First Printing (signed by Sim & Gerhard) or in an Unsigned Second Printing.

6:26:00 PM

Thursday, April 08, 2004
 
Comics Bill of Rights.

Lest I should forget it exists, here it is.

11:32:00 AM


 
Animated Comics.

Here's some animated Jim Woodring "Frank" bits, courtesy of the Seattle Public Library.

Thanks to Scott McCloud.

11:23:00 AM


 
Open Source Comic Book Character.

Jenny Everywhere, for use by everyone.

Read the comics in which she appears.

11:08:00 AM


 
Utopian Society.

Read "Utopia and Reality" by Butler Shaffer.

Be sure to read "The People's Romance: Why People Love Government (as much as they do)" by Daniel B. Klein.

10:50:00 AM

Wednesday, April 07, 2004
 
My Top 5 "Must" Reading List.

1. The Art of War, Sun Tzu
2. The Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Luo Guan-zhong
3. The Godhead Trilogy, James Morrow
4. Cerebus, Dave Sim
5. Understanding Comics and Reinventing Comics, Scott McCloud

7:08:00 PM

Tuesday, April 06, 2004
 
More Spam.

EXTREMAL WOOF
c'mon honey
formatting
From our front porch
to riverside
We Bring
Full Color Together
Your big break awaits.
Your love life is about to be awesome
you here yet
SO WHAT I'M A SLUT !!

7:48:00 PM

Monday, April 05, 2004
 
24-Hour Comics Day.

It's coming up in less than three weeks, so to mentally prepare myself, I've begun to read The Dare.

6:59:00 PM


 
May 2004 Comics Wish List.

1. AGE OF BRONZE VOLUME 2: SACRIFICES HC
By Eric Shanower
224 pages, $29.95, Image Comics
The Age of Bronze reprints the original series about the ancient city of Troy.

2. SALMON DOUBTS
By Adam Sacks
128pgs $14.95, ALTERNATIVE COMICS
Read some excerpts from Salmon Doubts here.

2:04:00 PM


 
A Web Comic.

Patrick Farley gives us a peek into his alternate universe history of the U.S.-Afghan conflict with "The Spiders."

12:07:00 PM

Sunday, April 04, 2004
 
More Cerebus Items.

First, almost in answer to my question about Cerebus' age, I found The Cerebus Timeline, version 5.0. (Word of warning: it's a bit of a read.)

Then there's this Cerebus entry at The Journal of American Popular Culture.

According to a Cerebus entry at Wikipedia, "The Last Day," the last TPB of the Cerebus series, is to be on the shelves in late 2004 or early 2005. Also, "Collected Letters 2004" is expected to be published. It contains correspondence with Dave Sim.

Then there's the comprehensive list of links compiled by Cerebus Fan Girl.

Last, and perhaps least, is this comprehensive review and critique of Cerebus #300.

8:40:00 PM


 
Oz Art.

I was re-reading some of my old Oz comics today, starting with Oz #1 and going through the "Scarecrow," "Lion," and "Timman" specials, and I noticed the difference between regular series artist Bill Bryan's Oz world is compared to the other fill-in artists on the specials.

Bryan's drawing style -- a darker, deeper madness -- perfectly coincides with the storyline through the comic. But the other three artists offered up styles that were complete opposites, some more indicitive of a superhero comic. The styles were just overdone and really didn't fit the mold of the comic.

Mind you, that doesn't mean I think they are bad artists, I don't. I just think that their styles were not fits for the specials. If they had applied their handiwork to a superhero genre comic, it would be better, but I don't think any of the three would have been particularly spectacular.

6:17:00 PM

Friday, April 02, 2004
 
Another Cerebus post.

One thing that popped into my mind while I was reading "Latter Days," was how old, exactly, is Cerebus? In that trade alone, Cerebus narrates that he ages quite a few years, at least in relation to Earth years.

And even then, he's spent years in the pub in "Rick's Story" and aged in "High Society" and "Church & State." But figuring out how, exactly, to count his years would be difficult at best and tenable at worst.

Perhaps when the last trade comes out, closure could be had.

3:28:00 PM

Thursday, April 01, 2004
 
More Dave Sim and Cerebus.

This time, it's the American Spectator.

1:17:00 PM

 
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